Record U.S. Debt, But Interest Costs Are In Line with History

As U.S. debt hits $40 trillion and continues to rise, the sheer size of the number makes for striking headlines, but alone doesn’t tell the whole story.

A more useful measure may be the cost of servicing that debt relative to the size of the federal budget and the economy.

Unlike a household, the U.S. has a growing economy and tax base, can refinance its debt over time, and issues debt in its own currency.

Today, federal interest payments account for 16.1% of federal spending, only modestly above the 15.0% long-term average since 1947.

When economic growth keeps pace with borrowing costs, a rising debt burden can remain manageable over time.

Although the spending trend deserves attention, history suggests its sustainability may be more resilient than the headline numbers imply.